V burzovn\u00edm sv\u011bt\u011b plat\u00ed axiomy, o kter\u00fdch se nediskutuje. Fakt, \u017ee zlato funguje jako pojistka proti inflaci, tvo\u0159\u00ed ned\u00edlnou sou\u010d\u00e1st investorsk\u00e9 mytologie. V\u00fdkonnost \u017elut\u00e9ho kovu se v\u0161ak od za\u010d\u00e1tku roku nach\u00e1z\u00ed v z\u00e1poru navzdory nejsiln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed infla\u010dn\u00ed vln\u011b za posledn\u00edch 40 let.\u00a0Takov\u00fd v\u00fdvoj p\u0159edstavuje pro mnoh\u00e9 na prvn\u00ed pohled alarmuj\u00edc\u00ed nekonzistentnost. Cena vz\u00e1cn\u00e9ho kovu se v\u0161ak nechov\u00e1 nikterak mimo\u0159\u00e1dn\u011b. Zlato nechr\u00e1n\u00ed proti inflaci realizovan\u00e9, n\u00fdbr\u017e proti inflaci budouc\u00ed. Kurz \u017elut\u00e9ho kovu m\u00e1 tendenci posilovat, pokud se infla\u010dn\u00ed o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed utrhnou ze \u0159et\u011bzu. Naopak oslabuje, pokud se na vzestupn\u00e9 trajektorii nach\u00e1zej\u00ed re\u00e1ln\u00e9 dluhopisov\u00e9 v\u00fdnosy. Centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky se po \u00favodn\u00edm p\u0159e\u0161lapov\u00e1n\u00ed odhodlaly k tvrd\u00e9 monet\u00e1rn\u00ed responzi.<\/p>\n
Navzdory po\u0161ramocen\u00e9 d\u016fv\u011bryhodnosti, zp\u016fsoben\u00e9 mylnou diagnostikou infla\u010dn\u00edch tlak\u016f jako p\u0159echodn\u00fdch, investo\u0159i nakonec uv\u011b\u0159ili, \u017ee centr\u00e1ln\u00ed bank\u00e9\u0159i berou sv\u016fj boj s ne\u0159\u00edzenou cenovou dynamikou v\u00e1\u017en\u011b. Infla\u010dn\u00ed o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed se proto vydala dol\u016f. P\u011btilet\u00e9 hrani\u010dn\u00ed (break-even) sazby, standardn\u00ed m\u011b\u0159\u00edtko o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed, se nach\u00e1zej\u00ed na \u00farovni 2,3 procenta, co\u017e signalizuje, \u017ee investo\u0159i v\u011b\u0159\u00ed v n\u00e1vrat inflace zp\u011bt na \u00farovn\u011b konzistentn\u00ed s mand\u00e1tem Fedu. Naproti tomu zlato vykazuje negativn\u00ed korelaci s re\u00e1ln\u00fdmi dluhopisov\u00fdmi v\u00fdnosy. Ty se dlouhodob\u011b pot\u00e1p\u011bly v z\u00e1porn\u00e9m teritoriu, nicm\u00e9n\u011b agresivn\u00ed utahovac\u00ed kampa\u0148 americk\u00e9 centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky spustila jejich rapidn\u00ed a robustn\u00ed n\u00e1r\u016fst.<\/p>\n
Dr\u017eba zlata je tak spojena s nemal\u00fdm n\u00e1kladem p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitosti, a proto se mu spr\u00e1vci pen\u011bz vyh\u00fdbaj\u00ed. Vz\u00e1cn\u00fd kov sp\u00ed\u0161e ne\u017e zaji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed proti inflaci slou\u017e\u00ed jako ochrana proti monet\u00e1rn\u011b-politick\u00e9 chyb\u011b. Pokud by centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky p\u00e1div\u00fd r\u016fst cen p\u0159ehl\u00ed\u017eely, odkotvila by se infla\u010dn\u00ed o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed. Liknav\u00fd p\u0159\u00edstup Fedu by katapultoval kurz \u017elut\u00e9ho kovu do stratosf\u00e9ry. Z(a)tracen\u00e1 \u010d\u00edsla 10. d\u00edl – Do \u010deho investovat. Centr\u00e1ln\u00ed bank\u00e9\u0159i v sob\u011b v\u0161ak v posledn\u00ed dob\u011b objevili bezpodm\u00edne\u010dnou odhodlanost inflaci porazit. Hyperinfla\u010dn\u00ed sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 je tak sp\u00ed\u0161e paranoidn\u00ed p\u0159edstavou. Cena zlata tradi\u010dn\u011b vykazuje zna\u010dnou citlivost v\u016f\u010di popt\u00e1vce ze strany v\u00fdrobc\u016f \u0161perk\u016f v Indii a \u010c\u00edn\u011b. Zku\u0161enost dokazuje, \u017ee pokud se cena \u017elut\u00e9ho kovu vy\u0161plh\u00e1 nad dva tis\u00edce dolar\u016f, doch\u00e1z\u00ed k ochlazen\u00ed popt\u00e1vky ze strany asijsk\u00fdch \u0161perka\u0159\u016f.<\/p>\n
Tato cenovka p\u0159edstavuje p\u0159irozen\u00fd strop a kurz zlata m\u00e1 po prora\u017een\u00ed t\u00e9to p\u0159ek\u00e1\u017eky sklon oslabovat. Pro objektivitu dod\u00e1v\u00e1m, \u017ee by kov mohutn\u011b pos\u00edlil v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b vyost\u0159ov\u00e1n\u00ed geopolitick\u00fdch tenz\u00ed. Navzdory vyhrocen\u00e9 r\u00e9torice takovou variantu nep\u0159edpokl\u00e1d\u00e1me. Dlouhodob\u011b by zlatu pomohla fraktura vztahu mezi USA a \u010c\u00ednou, kter\u00e1 by podkopala dolarovou hegemonii. Z demise dolaru jako glob\u00e1ln\u00ed rezervn\u00ed m\u011bny by ov\u0161em v prvn\u00ed \u0159ad\u011b profitovala jin\u00e1 aktiva jako nap\u0159\u00edklad \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fd j\u00fcan. Fanou\u0161ci zlata \u010dasto vyzdvihuj\u00ed jeho p\u0159ednostn\u00ed m\u00edsto v rezerv\u00e1ch centr\u00e1ln\u00edch bank. Do vz\u00e1cn\u00e9ho kovu soust\u0159ed\u00ed sv\u00e9 prost\u0159edky zejm\u00e9na banky, kter\u00e9 se sna\u017e\u00ed vymanit z dolarocentrick\u00e9ho finan\u010dn\u00edho syst\u00e9mu.\u00a0Cynicky shrnuto: pokud s\u00e1z\u00edte na hyperinflaci, soust\u0159e\u010fte do zlata drtivou v\u011bt\u0161inu sv\u00e9ho portfolia. Pokud o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1te m\u00e9n\u011b extr\u00e9mn\u00ed budoucnost, tak se \u017elut\u00e9mu kovu rad\u011bji vyhn\u011bte.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
V burzovn\u00edm sv\u011bt\u011b plat\u00ed axiomy, o kter\u00fdch se nediskutuje. Fakt, \u017ee zlato funguje jako pojistka proti inflaci, tvo\u0159\u00ed ned\u00edlnou sou\u010d\u00e1st investorsk\u00e9 mytologie. V\u00fdkonnost \u017elut\u00e9ho kovu se v\u0161ak od za\u010d\u00e1tku roku…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":1936,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/silhouettesculptpro.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1935"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/silhouettesculptpro.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/silhouettesculptpro.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/silhouettesculptpro.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/silhouettesculptpro.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1935"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/silhouettesculptpro.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1935\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1937,"href":"https:\/\/silhouettesculptpro.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1935\/revisions\/1937"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/silhouettesculptpro.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/1936"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/silhouettesculptpro.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1935"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/silhouettesculptpro.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1935"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/silhouettesculptpro.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1935"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}